Friday, September 20, 2013

Inflation - The survey also revealed stability in the estimates msp for inflation in 2013. The medi


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Still unfolding as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surprising msp in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter (1.5%) and IBC-Br (considered the prior GDP) resulting in a better number msp than expected in July compared to June, the median financial market projections for economic growth in 2013 rose from 2.35% to 2.40%, according to the Focus market report released on Monday msp by the Central Bank. A month ago the rate was 2.21% growth in GDP this year.
As for 2014, the median forecast for GDP growth decreased further msp from 2.28% to 2.22% - four weeks ago was 2.50%. Industrial production, the Focus has revealed a set of expectations for 2013 of 2.10% to 2.12% - a month ago was 2.08%. Already in 2014, there was a decrease in the level of 3.00% - the same seen four weeks ago - to 2.65%.
Selic - After major changes seen in last week's report to the direction of monetary policy, financial market expectations for the benchmark msp interest rate, the Selic rate, which currently stands at 9% per year, remained at 9.75% for the end of this year. A month ago, the expectation was a variation of 9.25% per annum at the end of December 2013. This demonstrates msp the expected msp increase of 0.50 percentage point forecasts in just four weeks.
Inflation - The survey also revealed stability in the estimates msp for inflation in 2013. The median for the National Index of Consumer Price Index (IPCA) of 5.82% in 2013 followed, as I was last week. Four weeks was 5.74%. As for 2014, the median forecast for inflation rose from 5.85% to 5.90%. The rate seen a month ago was 5.80%.
Among the professionals who most hit forecasts for the medium term, the group called the BC Top 5, IPCA 2013 should be in charge of 5.76% from 5.85% a week earlier view - four weeks ago, was at 5.47%. In the case of 2014, this same group did not move in expectation of 6.17% for this week. A month ago, the projection was 5.80%.
Rates - After taking a break last week, the financial analysts reversed the trajectory of expectations for the rates seen in recent months. The median estimate for the end of 2013 fell slightly, from 2.36 to 2.35 reais. A month ago, the expectation was for a median price of 2.30 reais. To the end of 2014, the outlook for the dollar again became stagnant, at 2.40 reais.
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